RECOVERY ON IT'S WAY?

Property sales will pick up in third quarter, claims expert
By: thinkSPAIN , Thursday, January 8, 2009

42,883 properties were sold last October, 28% fewer than during October 2007, according to National Statistics Institute figures released yesterday that reveal a huge difference in trends for second-hand properties (-43%) and new-build (-9%).

There was a corresponding 34% decline in the number of new mortgages and the average value dropped 10% to ?135,202 euros.

Real estate expert, Gonzalo Bernardos, believes that, as a result of downward price pressure and governmental fiscal intervention: "The worst is over. We won't see a return to the magnificent years. 2009 will be a bad year, similar to 1993. But, 2008 has been horrendous."

Owing to the number of repossessions, Mr Bernardos went on to predict that: "In 2009, banks will become estate agents and start offering mortgages up to 110% if you buy from them," and, given that the euribor rate used to calculate mortgages in the eurozone has fallen 2.5 points recently to below 3%, that sales will begin to pick up by the second or third quarter.

However, Gregorio Izquierdo, who is the director of studies at the Economic Research Institute and a professor at the UNED, is more cautious, and thinks that the recovery may not begin until the end of the year, which is by when he predicts that market prices will have stabilised.

still think price are going Down , in spanish market , but if you English owner you still try to sale you house at 2006 price and no one , will buy from you , i see some off the English estate agents are dreaming off big prices awell .

Get an estate agents that will "TREAT YOU WITH RESPECT AND HONESTY."

Don't forget if you are trying to sell you may have bought for 140,000 euros which cost you 100,000 pds but you can now sell for 100,000 euros and put around 100,000 pounds in your pocket. OK you may not have made a profit (in this market who has) but at least you won't have lost.

For what its worth, I wrote an article or 2 about this a while.

Looking at TINSA valuations (http://blog.arribaestates.com/2009/01/15/property-prices-2008-according-to-tinsa/)

Price according to the spanish housing ministry (http://blog.arribaestates.com/2009/01/19/32-drop-in-prices-says-the-ministry-of-housing/)

> Don't forget if you are trying to sell you may have bought for 140,000 euros which cost you 100,000 pds but you can now sell for 100,000 euros and put around 100,000 pounds in your pocket. OK you may not have made a profit (in this market who has) but at least you won't have lost.


Very good point ROBI... something that alot of people seem to be missing.

My folks are after buying another house over at the Costa de la Luz, Cadiz area. Yes, we know it's more expensive than Granada, but given the fall in property sales, it doesn't seem like people are willing to lower their prices much. It seems like people want to ride it out and hope for the best. Possibly they paid over the odds in the first place and refuse to take what they consider to be a loss.

If someones desperate to sell, then it's better as you suggest to walk aways with a sold property and very little or no loss, than sat indefinately and hoping to make a profit.

The exchange rate was working in alot of people's favour when they bought the properties, but it still can in the current climate when you want to sell and beat the competition.

Hi,

What you've mentioned in the above article is absolutely right. In fact, this is one of most popular area now a days from builders' perspective. The construction work in this area is increasing day by day. Definitely, people will have some low cost flats to own especially for middle class families.

CSK

Hi,

This is one of my favorite forum. I would say, thanks for providing this useful information. I, must appreciate the tools provided by you. Please keep updating me.

CSK

CSK will we try to be real in here ,

A bull market != "exuberance and a belief that good times will roll forever". Saying and believing stupid shit like, "housing prices will go up forever," or "companies don't need profits in the new economy," is. Large financial and construction firms built business models on housing growing forever. That's stupid. Markets clawing back half their losses because the worst case scenario didn't hit, but still being 30% off the recent high is normal. Plus I don't know any bankers that are 100% convinced it's going to keep going like this. Only the most optimistic of bulls would be surprised by another leg down.

You mean, like the consumer confidence numbers that cratered in January?

Hence my footnote. Though it may be wishful thinking right now, I'm still relatively optimistic.

Matt John

> A bull market != "exuberance and a belief that good times will roll forever". Saying and believing stupid shit like, "housing prices will go up forever," or "companies don't need profits in the new economy," is. Large financial and construction firms built business models on housing growing forever. That's stupid. Markets clawing back half their losses because the worst case scenario didn't hit, but still being 30% off the recent high is normal. Plus I don't know any bankers that are 100% convinced it's going to keep going like this. Only the most optimistic of bulls would be surprised by another leg down.

You mean, like the consumer confidence numbers that cratered in January?

Hence my footnote. Though it may be wishful thinking right now, I'm still relatively optimistic.

Matt John



Don't mean to step on anyones toes, but comeon lets be honest, we are not even half way to hell yet. I seriously suggest you do some serious research, if you wish to keep ahead of what is coming with this next leg down. China is already off loading its Tbills, commercial real estate is about to pop, china is decoupling, the whole catastrophic financialponzi scheme is way passed dead despite the multi squillion, multi nation programme of ridiculous quantitative easing initated by central banks around the world. The stock market is due for a massive correction before the end of october, and with it will come deflation , which emans asset deflation, you will nto eb able to give your houses away, and mark my words the us dollar will eventually collapse as the us eventually defaults on its sovereign debt, and no doubt spain, greece , italy and portugal as well as Ireland will follow it. When this happens every major currency on this planet will feel the effects. I suggest you start looking at people like marc faber, nouriel Roubini, Pete Schiff, Gerald Celente, Max keiser and all the other canaries in the mind shaft that ahve been calling this for the last few years . If that sounds too much like hard work try some alternative media sites like creditcrunch.co.uk or the gerald celente channel on Yotube , where you can access real information not the usual mind numbing propaganda that passes as news shilling for the main stream press. Good luck, we are all going to need it.

> [quote author="Matt John" date="1268069649"]A bull market != "exuberance and a belief that good times will roll forever". Saying and believing stupid shit like, "housing prices will go up forever," or "companies don't need profits in the new economy," is. Large financial and construction firms built business models on housing growing forever. That's stupid. Markets clawing back half their losses because the worst case scenario didn't hit, but still being 30% off the recent high is normal. Plus I don't know any bankers that are 100% convinced it's going to keep going like this. Only the most optimistic of bulls would be surprised by another leg down.

You mean, like the consumer confidence numbers that cratered in January?

Hence my footnote. Though it may be wishful thinking right now, I'm still relatively optimistic.

Matt John



Don't mean to step on anyones toes, but comeon lets be honest, we are not even half way to hell yet. I seriously suggest you do some serious research, if you wish to keep ahead of what is coming with this next leg down. China is already off loading its Tbills, commercial real estate is about to pop, china is decoupling, the whole catastrophic financialponzi scheme is way passed dead despite the multi squillion, multi nation programme of ridiculous quantitative easing initated by central banks around the world. The stock market is due for a massive correction before the end of october, and with it will come deflation , which emans asset deflation, you will nto eb able to give your houses away, and mark my words the us dollar will eventually collapse as the us eventually defaults on its sovereign debt, and no doubt spain, greece , italy and portugal as well as Ireland will follow it. When this happens every major currency on this planet will feel the effects. I suggest you start looking at people like marc faber, nouriel Roubini, Pete Schiff, Gerald Celente, Max keiser and all the other canaries in the mind shaft that ahve been calling this for the last few years . If that sounds too much like hard work try some alternative media sites like creditcrunch.co.uk or the gerald celente channel on Yotube , where you can access real information not the usual mind numbing propaganda that passes as news shilling for the main stream press. Good luck, we are all going to need it.[/quote]

I have to agree with you on this adds.
The only ones speaking with any logic at the moment are Peter Schiff and Celente.
In short....interest rates were too low for too long and anyone who thinks we'll be turning the curve anytime soon will be sorely disappointed.